A new global order or a transition of the international system?

The recent National Security Strategy of the United States is presented in a context of transition in the international order, marked by greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict. In this scenario, the emphasis that the document places on Latin America is particularly relevant, reaffirming the strategic primacy of the region and a realistic view of international relations. In the face of this changing environment, Chile faces the challenge of thinking strategically and strengthening its permanent national security structures.

MR. DIRECTOR:

In November 2025, the White House published its new national security strategy. This foundational document is essential for the protection of its vital interests and effectively defines how it will exercise all dimensions of its power. In other words, the national security strategies of great powers define the vision of an international order they wish to promote and shape.

When there is a clearly established international order, whether multipolar, bipolar, or unipolar, the impact tends to be more predictable since the great powers are defined and their intentions are more or less well determined. Conversely, when such an international order is in transition—as proposed in this letter—uncertainty, volatility, and ambiguity are more evident. As history indicates, during any transition, the number of wars tends to increase. For instance, in the 2010s, there were 45 wars, compared to the 56 already classified in the current decade. We still do not know what type of new order we are transitioning to, in a context of devaluation of norms and international organizations.

The points made in the previous paragraphs provide the context in which the U.S. articulated its current strategy. The novelty of this document is the importance given to Latin America. Additionally, and perhaps more clearly, it reaffirms the “Monroe Doctrine” to exclude rivals and external influences from the region. This preeminence impacts, at least, issues such as the isolation of Venezuela and Cuba, promoting political and economic changes, as well as strengthening security cooperation to combat criminal organizations, drug trafficking, and terrorism. It highlights the promotion of investments in infrastructure and energy in Latin America, representing an effort to reduce dependence on external countries outside the region.

It is evident that the recent U.S. strategy is predominantly a realistic view of international relations. Undoubtedly, its success will depend on proper execution, where interaction with current rival powers will determine the levels of global peace and security, as well as the international order we are approaching. Consequently, Chile must think strategically and define permanent national security structures to face this evolving global reality.

John Griffiths S.
Acting Executive Director of AthenaLab.

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The opinions expressed belong to the author and do not necessarily represent those of AthenaLab.