COLUMN | Is It Time to Choose?

El Mercurio, April 13, 2019

Juan Pablo Toro V.

The Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo devoted much of his speech on foreign policy toward Latin America yesterday to criticize the “increased presence of China” in the region and what he considers its negative effects.

He pointed to Chinese investments that have entered public works through opaque government-to-government agreements, which have led to enormous cases of corruption and the erosion of institutions.

He accused Beijing of “taking control of countries” through loans that subsequently create a “massive debt trap.”

And finally, he lashed out at the support given by China -and also Russia- to the regime of Nicolás Maduro, which contravenes the requests of the United Nations and a significant part of the international community, which calls for democracy.

Beyond the criticisms, the validity of which varies from case to case, the message can be understood in many ways, even as an uncomfortable challenge just as President Sebastián Piñera embarks on a tour to China. Is it time to choose? It is not an easy answer. Especially because there are elements of sovereignty and national interests at stake.

It is true that with the United States, countries like Chile share economic interests and deep political values. Pompeo emphasized this point, equating Thomas Jefferson with Andrés Bello (a Venezuelan settled in Chile) for their institutional and democratic legacy. Meanwhile, with China, there is a profitable trade partnership and solid diplomatic ties that have almost extended for 50 years.

But the diplomat also warned that when regional ties are not maintained and there is a vacuum, it can be filled by other “presumed friends.” He did not recall, however, that his administration, which has now declared itself back in Latin America, caused confusion by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Paris Agreement on climate change. He also did not announce significant amounts in investments or security initiatives to counteract Chinese influence, beyond the America Crece program -focused on energy and infrastructure projects- launched last year.

When generating a response to this evident dispute, Chile will have to think of an intelligent way to navigate between two giants without getting harmed. To begin with, it would be useful to have a clear vision of what it wants to be as a country, establish the expected levels of its various types of relationships (trade, politics, defense, technology, and energy), have a strategic approach to the Asia-Pacific as a whole, and draw red lines regarding national interests. Relations with the United States and China have so far been beneficial. It does not seem that the time to choose has yet arrived, but the clock is ticking, and preparations must be made.

* Juan Pablo Toro is the Executive Director of AthenaLab