INTERVIEW | "We should not overinterpret that the United States has gone to war with Iran": Juan Pablo Toro on the conflict in the Middle East
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- by Juan Pablo Toro
- Interviews
The geopolitical analyst discussed the consequences of U.S. involvement in the war between Iran and Israel.
On Sunday night, the United States launched an attack on three nuclear facilities in Iran, escalating the conflict in the Middle East. In response, Iran fired ballistic missiles at the U.S. airbase located in Qatar on Monday.
Despite the increase in international tension this scenario generates, the geopolitical analyst and director of AthenaLAB, Juan Pablo Toro dismissed the notion that U.S. involvement represents a threat. “Ialso do not believe we should overinterpret the fact that the United States has gone to war with Iran, as I think the attack on nuclear facilities was quite limited.“
In Nothing Is That Serious, the expert noted that for a potential global war scenario, there must be direct confrontations between the powers. “For a war to be global, there would need to be a global conflict, and the powers with global reach are the United States, which took very limited action. China has a global reach that is not as extensive, and Russia is somewhat more regional, but due to nuclear weapons, it can be understood as global.”
Economic repercussions of the conflict
In economic terms, Toro warned that the countries most affected by the conflict are Iran, Turkey, and India as they are the largest importers of oil. “There have been some limited attacks on oil facilities, which is affecting the increase in oil prices. This will impact the price of oil, probably already doing so at around 4%, but today the countries that are most concerned are precisely those in East Asia”
In this context, the Strait of Hormuz becomes very important, as it is one of the main export routes for oil to Asia. Its potential blockage would have repercussions for Chile. “There are our main buyers of raw materials. If they are affected, we are indirectly affected“.
On the other hand, Toro warned that a potential conflict between the United States and China would have greater effects on the Chilean economy. “In that case, we would be looking at a different scenario. Chile is a major exporter to Asia, so there would be a greater problem accessing those markets in a conflict“.
In this context, the Strait of Hormuz becomes very important, as it is one of the main export routes for oil to Asia. Its potential blockage would have repercussions for Chile. “There are our main buyers of raw materials. If they are affected, we are indirectly affected“.
On the other hand, Toro warned that a potential conflict between the United States and China would have greater effects on the Chilean economy. “In that case, we would be looking at a different scenario. Chile is a major exporter to Asia, so there would be a greater problem accessing those markets in a conflict“.
