DT26 | Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Two Years of War in Europe

As the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine approaches, this publication evaluates its development, as well as which aspects of the previous analysis conducted by AthenaLab in February 2023 have been realized and which have not materialized.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine will mark two years on February 24, in the context of a conflict that began in 2014 with the prior Russian annexation of Crimea and the occupation of areas in eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk, along with those in Kherson and Zaporizhia in the south of the country). The illegal occupation of these areas represents 15% of the total Ukrainian territory and has meant that in this region, the conflict has continued at a lower intensity for the past 10 years. The Russian invasion of 2022 is, in every sense, an armed aggression and has transformed a low- to medium-intensity conflict into a total war.

This occurs in the context of a changing international order, where, as history shows, a transition leads to a greater number of conflicts and wars, as well as a degradation of the norms that have governed the international system. This is the result of a clear competition and confrontation among hegemonic powers trying to impose themselves globally, as well as the challenge posed by regional or middle powers striving to better position themselves in the future power structure or new international order. Small states face the decision to align themselves in an effort to improve their relative position in this new reality, trying to safeguard their own national interests in a game where, ultimately, it will be very difficult to remain neutral.

In February 2023, AthenaLab published the Working Paper No. 21 | “One Year After the Russian Invasion of Ukraine”. This document analyzed the onset of the conflict, the evolution of the main operations, as well as the initial experiences or lessons observed, concluding with probable scenarios that were expected to arise, in addition to the main considerations to be implemented according to those hypothetical scenarios.

Additionally, on January 25 of this year, AthenaLab held a seminar, inviting the newly appointed Ukrainian ambassador to Chile, Mr. Yurii Diudin, to give a lecture on the developments of these two years of conflict.

Thus, as the second anniversary of the invasion approaches, a new publication has been prepared to evaluate its development, as well as to confirm which aspects of that analysis have been realized and which have not materialized. Similarly, the main experiences observed—over the past year—in the use of military force will be addressed, along with the trends and possibilities arising from the conflict, concluding with some general considerations.