DT32 | Three Years After the Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Reality and Hope
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On February 24, three years will have passed since the start of the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. While recent information regarding the war has focused on potential negotiations and the role that the President of the United States could play, it is worthwhile to review the current situation of this conflict.
Today, given the situation on the battlefield and information available from open sources, it is difficult to determine the end of the war by 2025. Both belligerents are far from achieving their political war objectives; Russia is in a favorable position as, despite incurring a high cost in lives and material, it has been pressing along the entire front and making gradual advances of a few meters for months. Ukraine, on the other hand, with the support of the West, has been able to prevent a Russian breakthrough while inflicting significant losses and developing capabilities to strike deeper into Russian territory. However, Kyiv faces a delicate situation in generating forces for combat, maintaining the minimum age for mobilization at 25 years, which poses significant strategic problems in equipping its forces with sufficient personnel to sustain the defense. Moscow is beginning to feel the effects of the war on its economy, which, while not close to collapsing, is expected to face more serious problems by 2026.
In this entire scenario, a significant change in the approach to the conflict has emerged from the new U.S. government. Now, the administration has opted, at least as reported by the media, for direct contact with Putin, who has so far been isolated from the Western world. All of this occurs with little to no involvement from Europe and, more concerning, from Ukraine. As this analysis is being written, negotiations to end hostilities seem to be a priority for Trump, but further details are unknown.
The following paragraphs will review the main events of 2024, analyze the current situation, and present some general observations on the ongoing war, as well as prospects for peace, their implications, and feasibility.
