Is Milei's Argentina a Threat to Chile?

We must take advantage of the time to maintain or improve our strategic capabilities while we operate and train, in order to sustain our deterrent capabilities. The relationship between the two countries works wonderfully when it is equal or when we are doing better.

Recently, the Argentine government published a report on its maritime and aeronautical patrol activities in what they call the “Mare Nostrum,” a patrol that included the Beagle Channel and the eastern mouth of the Strait of Magellan.

Should we be concerned about this? Perhaps not much, because what they did seems more like marketing than something more serious, but it is important to be clear that regardless of who is in the Casa Rosada, the historical Argentine DNA always seeks more to the south and west, with the Strait of Magellan and the Beagle Channel being among its permanent objects of desire.

What is concerning is that, except for a couple of analysts in Chile, including myself, this is not a topic for the government, the media, or public opinion.

The important thing is to be clear whether Milei’s Argentina is a real threat to Chile. For now, it is not a military threat, but a neighbor with whom we can clearly work on various fronts, always keeping in mind that its nature—like that of the scorpion—can betray it and lead it to seek waters and lands that do not belong to it, so it is prudent to maintain a professional relationship with them in areas of mutual interest, such as security and the fight against organized crime, which is very necessary in the north of both countries, as well as in all matters related to trade, tourism, and mining investments.

The priority of the libertarian government is to fix the country’s finances, a fix without which everything Milei envisions to return to what it was at the beginning of the 20th century is not possible. Without money, everything remains the same, and the glorious past stays in the past.

The Argentine Armed Forces are better than before, even to the point that the head of the Army will assume the role of Minister of Defense on December 10. They have also caught up on promotions that were delayed, which has improved morale, which would be even better if they could recover the purchasing power lost over years of neglect, as well as if the neglected healthcare system, the Institute of Social Works of the Armed Forces (IOSFA), a creation of the Kirchners that grouped the health systems of the institutions, were properly managed, both by the current government and previous ones.

Where they are not much better is in material resources. The used F-16s they purchased will begin to arrive this year, but they will not have all of them for a couple more years. They do not come with the latest technologies and weapon systems. In parallel, the necessary logistical investments are being made to operate them, as Argentine bases and facilities were not in a condition to receive them.

As there is no budget, the Navy has been unable to address the urgent renewal of its fleet, which currently does not sail or does so very little. Despite the French approaches, thinking about acquiring submarines is not an option unless they are given away or their payment is significantly deferred.

They are receiving four second-hand maritime reconnaissance aircraft from the United States, which, combined with the patrol boats they acquired some time ago in France, give them the capacity to patrol their exclusive economic zone and control Chinese fishing activity. A contract for the purchase of helicopters from Leonardo is pending, which should be finalized before the end of the year.

The Army has been focused on recovering its TAM tanks and recently received “Stryker” armored vehicles, manufactured in the United States, but in much smaller quantities than desired or requested. If there is funding in the future, it is expected that they can complete the quantities they need.

A strong and powerful Argentina, like that of the late 19th century that Milei envisions, will need a better economy to generate revenue or have credit, something that will take time, during which we should not sit idly by. We must take advantage of the time to maintain or improve our strategic capabilities while we operate and train, in order to sustain our deterrent capabilities.

The relationship between the two countries works wonderfully when it is equal or when we are doing better. We must never forget that it is very possible that the scorpion cannot help but betray its nature.

Chile’s enemy is organized crime and transnational crime. Combating it requires working together with our neighbors, Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru. There is no other alternative. We have a common enemy that will force us to work united.