DF Connection to China | The Turbulent Waters Foreseen by Xi

Diario Financiero, October 18, 2022

The anticipated speech by President Xi Jinping during the XX Congress of the Communist Party of China drew attention not so much for its announcements, but rather for the serious warnings he made about the difficult times ahead.

There is no doubt that today’s world is very different from that of a decade ago, when Xi, at the start of his term, preached about building a “community of shared destiny” for humanity, an idea behind the Belt and Road Initiative.

“The Chinese President suggests that no expectations should be set for a change of captain in the midst of the storm, let alone a change of course. At least, it seems that China will not do so.”

“We must be more aware of potential dangers, be prepared for the worst scenarios, and be ready to withstand strong winds, turbulent waters, and even dangerous storms,” the leader said on Sunday before the 2,300 delegates at the People’s Assembly, but also before a global audience closely watching the conclave where Chinese leadership is renewed.

The reality is that today the strategic competition among great powers is back. Covid-19 refuses to disappear. Economies are being hit by inflation and low growth. And political instability is reaching even developed countries. In this sense, it is understandable that one of the most repeated topics by Xi has been “security,” as much more of that elusive condition is required in all these areas.

He proposed to continue advancing in effective strategic deterrence, while asserting the use of force to reunify Taiwan if the peaceful route does not succeed. A familiar script, but where the final recipient of the message is clearly the United States.

While managing the growing rivalry with Washington is a significant challenge for Xi’s third term, his societies are also becoming problematic. The proclaimed “unlimited” friendship with President Vladimir Putin is now facing the test of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which, aside from its uncertain outcome, only served to unify a West that was in the process of division. And on China’s border, the unruly North Korean leader is setting records with missile tests.

In the economy, President Xi did not address forecasts that speak of a slowdown (curiously, no figures for the third quarter were released yesterday), and stated that by 2035, China should have the per capita income of a middle-income country. He also advocated for maintaining the “Zero Covid” policies, which some experts claim have hindered growth with abrupt lockdowns.

“In the midst of drastic changes in the international arena, we remained strong and showed a fighting spirit to safeguard our dignity and our interests,” asserted the Chinese leader, the most powerful since Mao.

In his bid to project himself into a third term until 2027, likely resulting from this 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China, Xi is starting with announcements of “turbulent waters,” which is not very hopeful. And, without saying it, he also suggests that no expectations should be set for a change of captain in the midst of the storm, let alone a change of course. At least, it seems that China will not do so.

Juan Pablo Toro
Executive Director AthenaLab

Source: Diario Financiero