Connection to China | Pandemic and Tension: Talking About Taiwan Again

Diario Financiero, Tuesday, October 13, 2020

After a decade during which many diplomats, military personnel, academics, and journalists ceased discussing Taiwan, understanding the “poor business” that even hinting at its name represented, this small Indo-Pacific nation is back in the news.

From the latest edition of The Economist to The Financial Times, significant coverage is being dedicated to it.

The reason has been the increasingly frequent military exercises by mainland China, which are occurring following a series of threats regarding the annexation of the island, which Beijing considers a “rebel province” since nationalists settled there in 1949 after being defeated by the communists. Aircraft from the People’s Liberation Army are crossing the imaginary line that divides the Taiwan Strait for the first time in two decades, testing Taiwanese forces.

The unease spreading in East Asia has begun to extend, as a conflict would be catastrophic not only for the parties involved but also for the global economy, which is undergoing a deep crisis due to the coronavirus pandemic. However, it was precisely this situation that began to raise Taiwan’s profile, as its swift response to the rumor of an extremely contagious and lethal flu in the Chinese city of Wuhan was sufficient for the Taiwanese to start taking emergency measures. The island of 23 million people today reports seven deaths and about 500 infections.

This exemplary reaction, which combined movement restrictions and technological tools, has led to open discussions about this prosperous democracy led by President Tsai Ing-wen, who is now included among the 100 most influential people by Time.

The situation could not be more uncomfortable for Beijing, whose leaders have promised to achieve reunification by force if necessary and have seen their global image plummet due to the pandemic, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey. Of course, the threat also applies to those who support Taipei, namely the United States, if it decides to effectively commit to the defense of the island – and enter a war with unpredictable outcomes – in the event of a direct attack or being subjected to a naval blockade.

But this situation is, in turn, potentially very complex for more than 130 countries that have China as their main trading partner, and who are now engaging in diplomatic juggling to avoid falling into the Beijing-Washington rivalry. If some type of conflict were to erupt, how will they interpret it? As a Chinese internal matter, or as a clash between a very strong authoritarian power and a much weaker democratic country?

What a difference from the atmosphere that prevailed 10 years ago in Taipei, when the growing tourist and commercial exchanges with the mainland even hinted at the possibility of peaceful and gradual integration. Now we all live in interesting times, and that includes talking about Taiwan again, a partner in APEC, a potential candidate for the TPP (at least, that is its intention), and a nation that has taken its own path to do things.

Juan Pablo Toro